Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016
Identifieur interne : 000097 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000096; suivant : 000098Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016
Auteurs : Enrique Acosta [Allemagne] ; Stacey A. Hallman [Canada] ; Lisa Y. Dillon ; Nadine Ouellette ; Robert Bourbeau ; D. Ann Herring [Canada] ; Kris Inwood [Canada] ; David J. D. Earn [Canada] ; Joaquin Madrenas [États-Unis] ; Matthew S. Miller [Canada] ; Alain Gagnon [Canada]Source :
- Demography [ 0070-3370 ] ; 2019.
Abstract
This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959–2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be influenced by a combination of cohort- and period-specific factors, reflecting the interaction between the antigenic experience of the population and the evolution of the influenza virus itself, mortality patterns of the elderly appear to be molded by broader cohort factors. The latter would reflect the processes of physiological capital improvement in successive birth cohorts through secular changes in early-life conditions. Antigenic imprinting, cohort morbidity phenotype, and other mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort effects, including the baby boom, are discussed.
The online version of this article (10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y
PubMed: 31502229
PubMed Central: 6797638
Affiliations:
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Hallman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff3"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.413850.b</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2097 5698</institution-id><institution>Demography Division,</institution><institution>Statistics Canada,</institution></institution-wrap>Ottawa, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Ottawa</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dillon, Lisa Y" sort="Dillon, Lisa Y" uniqKey="Dillon L" first="Lisa Y." last="Dillon">Lisa Y. Dillon</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.14848.31</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2292 3357</institution-id><institution>Département de Démographie,</institution><institution>Université de Montréal,</institution></institution-wrap>C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 Canada</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">QC H3C 3J7 Canada</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ouellette, Nadine" sort="Ouellette, Nadine" uniqKey="Ouellette N" first="Nadine" last="Ouellette">Nadine Ouellette</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.14848.31</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2292 3357</institution-id><institution>Département de Démographie,</institution><institution>Université de Montréal,</institution></institution-wrap>C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 Canada</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">QC H3C 3J7 Canada</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bourbeau, Robert" sort="Bourbeau, Robert" uniqKey="Bourbeau R" first="Robert" last="Bourbeau">Robert Bourbeau</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.14848.31</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2292 3357</institution-id><institution>Département de Démographie,</institution><institution>Université de Montréal,</institution></institution-wrap>C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 Canada</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">QC H3C 3J7 Canada</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Herring, D Ann" sort="Herring, D Ann" uniqKey="Herring D" first="D. Ann" last="Herring">D. Ann Herring</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff4"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.25073.33</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8227</institution-id><institution>Department of Anthropology,</institution><institution>McMaster University,</institution></institution-wrap>Hamilton, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Hamilton</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Inwood, Kris" sort="Inwood, Kris" uniqKey="Inwood K" first="Kris" last="Inwood">Kris Inwood</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff5"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.34429.38</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8198</institution-id><institution>Department of History,</institution><institution>University of Guelph,</institution></institution-wrap>Guelph, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Guelph</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Earn, David J D" sort="Earn, David J D" uniqKey="Earn D" first="David J. D." last="Earn">David J. D. Earn</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff6"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.25073.33</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8227</institution-id><institution>Department of Mathematics and Statistics,</institution><institution>McMaster University,</institution></institution-wrap>Hamilton, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Hamilton</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff7"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.25073.33</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8227</institution-id><institution>Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Diseases Research,</institution><institution>McMaster University,</institution></institution-wrap>Hamilton, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Hamilton</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Madrenas, Joaquin" sort="Madrenas, Joaquin" uniqKey="Madrenas J" first="Joaquin" last="Madrenas">Joaquin Madrenas</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff8"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.239844.0</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 0157 6501</institution-id><institution>Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute,</institution><institution>Harbor-UCLA Medical Center,</institution></institution-wrap>Torrance, CA USA</nlm:aff><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Torrance</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Matthew S" sort="Miller, Matthew S" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Matthew S." last="Miller">Matthew S. Miller</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff7"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.25073.33</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8227</institution-id><institution>Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Diseases Research,</institution><institution>McMaster University,</institution></institution-wrap>Hamilton, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Hamilton</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff9">Department of Biochemistry and Biomedical Sciences, McMaster, Hamilton, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biochemistry and Biomedical Sciences, McMaster, Hamilton</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hamilton</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff10"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.25073.33</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8227</institution-id><institution>McMaster Immunology Research Centre,</institution><institution>McMaster University,</institution></institution-wrap>Hamilton, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Hamilton</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gagnon, Alain" sort="Gagnon, Alain" uniqKey="Gagnon A" first="Alain" last="Gagnon">Alain Gagnon</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.14848.31</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2292 3357</institution-id><institution>Département de Démographie,</institution><institution>Université de Montréal,</institution></institution-wrap>C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 Canada</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">QC H3C 3J7 Canada</wicri:noCountry></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff11"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.14848.31</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000 0001 2292 3357</institution-id><institution>Public Health Research Institute (IRSPUM),</institution><institution>Université de Montréal,</institution></institution-wrap>Montreal, Canada</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Montreal</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Demography</title><idno type="ISSN">0070-3370</idno><idno type="eISSN">1533-7790</idno><imprint><date when="2019">2019</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959–2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be influenced by a combination of cohort- and period-specific factors, reflecting the interaction between the antigenic experience of the population and the evolution of the influenza virus itself, mortality patterns of the elderly appear to be molded by broader cohort factors. The latter would reflect the processes of physiological capital improvement in successive birth cohorts through secular changes in early-life conditions. Antigenic imprinting, cohort morbidity phenotype, and other mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort effects, including the baby boom, are discussed.</p><sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title><p>The online version of this article (10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Almond, D" uniqKey="Almond D">D Almond</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Armstrong, Gl" uniqKey="Armstrong G">GL Armstrong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Conn, La" uniqKey="Conn L">LA Conn</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pinner, Rw" uniqKey="Pinner R">RW Pinner</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Azambuja, Mir" uniqKey="Azambuja M">MIR Azambuja</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Barry, Jm" uniqKey="Barry J">JM Barry</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Beveridge, Wib" uniqKey="Beveridge W">WIB Beveridge</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Burian, Sj" uniqKey="Burian S">SJ Burian</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nix, Sj" uniqKey="Nix S">SJ Nix</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pitt, Re" uniqKey="Pitt R">RE Pitt</name></author><author><name sortKey="Durrans, Sr" uniqKey="Durrans S">SR Durrans</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Burnham, Kp" uniqKey="Burnham K">KP Burnham</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Dr" uniqKey="Anderson D">DR Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Canudas Romo, V" uniqKey="Canudas Romo V">V Canudas-Romo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guillot, M" uniqKey="Guillot M">M Guillot</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Carstensen, B" uniqKey="Carstensen B">B Carstensen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Centers For Disease Control Cdc" uniqKey="Centers For Disease Control Cdc">Centers for Disease Control (CDC).</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chin, J" uniqKey="Chin J">J Chin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Magoffin, Rl" uniqKey="Magoffin R">RL Magoffin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lennette, Eh" uniqKey="Lennette E">EH Lennette</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Clayton, D" uniqKey="Clayton D">D Clayton</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schifflers, E" uniqKey="Schifflers E">E Schifflers</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cohen, Sa" uniqKey="Cohen S">SA Cohen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Klassen, Ac" uniqKey="Klassen A">AC Klassen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ahmed, S" uniqKey="Ahmed S">S Ahmed</name></author><author><name sortKey="Agree, Em" uniqKey="Agree E">EM Agree</name></author><author><name sortKey="Louis, Ta" uniqKey="Louis T">TA Louis</name></author><author><name sortKey="Naumova, En" uniqKey="Naumova E">EN Naumova</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Collins, Sd" uniqKey="Collins S">SD Collins</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cutler, D" uniqKey="Cutler D">D Cutler</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, G" uniqKey="Miller G">G Miller</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Davenport, Fm" uniqKey="Davenport F">FM Davenport</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hennessy, Av" uniqKey="Hennessy A">AV Hennessy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Francis, T" uniqKey="Francis T">T Francis</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fabisch, P" uniqKey="Fabisch P">P Fabisch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Deaton, A" uniqKey="Deaton A">A Deaton</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Easterlin, Ra" uniqKey="Easterlin R">RA Easterlin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Engler, Renata J M" uniqKey="Engler R">Renata J. 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Shay</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Vaupel, Jw" uniqKey="Vaupel J">JW Vaupel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhenglian, W" uniqKey="Zhenglian W">W Zhenglian</name></author><author><name sortKey="Andreev, Kf" uniqKey="Andreev K">KF Andreev</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yashin, Ai" uniqKey="Yashin A">AI Yashin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C">Cecile Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Mark" uniqKey="Miller M">Mark Miller</name></author><author><name sortKey="Olson, Donald R" uniqKey="Olson D">Donald R Olson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Osterholm, Michael" uniqKey="Osterholm M">Michael Osterholm</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L">Lone Simonsen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Whelpton, Pk" uniqKey="Whelpton P">PK Whelpton</name></author><author><name sortKey="Eldridge, Ht" uniqKey="Eldridge H">HT Eldridge</name></author><author><name sortKey="Seigel, Js" uniqKey="Seigel J">JS Seigel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Worobey, M" uniqKey="Worobey M">M Worobey</name></author><author><name sortKey="Han, G Z" uniqKey="Han G">G-Z Han</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rambaut, A" uniqKey="Rambaut A">A Rambaut</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Xu, M" uniqKey="Xu M">M Xu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Powers, Da" uniqKey="Powers D">DA Powers</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fu, Wj" uniqKey="Fu W">WJ Fu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Land, Kc" uniqKey="Land K">KC Land</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li><li>Canada</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li></region></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Bourbeau, Robert" sort="Bourbeau, Robert" uniqKey="Bourbeau R" first="Robert" last="Bourbeau">Robert Bourbeau</name><name sortKey="Dillon, Lisa Y" sort="Dillon, Lisa Y" uniqKey="Dillon L" first="Lisa Y." last="Dillon">Lisa Y. Dillon</name><name sortKey="Ouellette, Nadine" sort="Ouellette, Nadine" uniqKey="Ouellette N" first="Nadine" last="Ouellette">Nadine Ouellette</name></noCountry><country name="Allemagne"><noRegion><name sortKey="Acosta, Enrique" sort="Acosta, Enrique" uniqKey="Acosta E" first="Enrique" last="Acosta">Enrique Acosta</name></noRegion></country><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Hallman, Stacey A" sort="Hallman, Stacey A" uniqKey="Hallman S" first="Stacey A." last="Hallman">Stacey A. Hallman</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Earn, David J D" sort="Earn, David J D" uniqKey="Earn D" first="David J. D." last="Earn">David J. D. Earn</name><name sortKey="Earn, David J D" sort="Earn, David J D" uniqKey="Earn D" first="David J. D." last="Earn">David J. D. Earn</name><name sortKey="Gagnon, Alain" sort="Gagnon, Alain" uniqKey="Gagnon A" first="Alain" last="Gagnon">Alain Gagnon</name><name sortKey="Herring, D Ann" sort="Herring, D Ann" uniqKey="Herring D" first="D. Ann" last="Herring">D. Ann Herring</name><name sortKey="Inwood, Kris" sort="Inwood, Kris" uniqKey="Inwood K" first="Kris" last="Inwood">Kris Inwood</name><name sortKey="Miller, Matthew S" sort="Miller, Matthew S" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Matthew S." last="Miller">Matthew S. Miller</name><name sortKey="Miller, Matthew S" sort="Miller, Matthew S" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Matthew S." last="Miller">Matthew S. Miller</name><name sortKey="Miller, Matthew S" sort="Miller, Matthew S" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Matthew S." last="Miller">Matthew S. Miller</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Madrenas, Joaquin" sort="Madrenas, Joaquin" uniqKey="Madrenas J" first="Joaquin" last="Madrenas">Joaquin Madrenas</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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